October Stats

So, October stats came in last week and they are on par with September.  The month started off a little stronger at the beginning of the month, but slowed down toward the end of the month.  This is not all that unusual.  There were probably quite a few people that had some issues with financing in September that go pushed to early October.  October sales of existing homes came in at 3457 with an average sale price of $324,000.  Since getting a jumbo loan was and is considerably more difficult these days there is also no real surprise that the average sale price has dropped a bit.  We expect to see the average sale price climb as the mortgage situation gets straightened out.  Looking forward to November we see things staying about the same as October and September.  We expect the number of existing homes sold to be around 3400 for November.

RealtyTrac reports Q3 foreclosures up nearly 34%

An estimated 446,726 properties were hit with foreclosure filings during the third quarter, a 33.9 percent increase from the previous quarter and more than double the number a year ago, according to data aggregator RealtyTrac. Nevada, California and Florida posted the highest rates of foreclosure in the nation, followed by Michigan, Ohio, Colorado, Arizona, Georgia, Indiana and Texas.  Arizona is ranked 7th with a 203.1% increase over a year ago.  To read the whole article go here.

Oh Canada!

If you think the value of the dollar dropping is all bad, check out this article recently published in The Star, a newspaper out of Toronto. Canadians have some new found money to spend and some of them are looking South for some real estate bargains. Considering this is becoming the best buyer’s market in a long time, I can’t say that I blame them. I recently spoke with real estate broker Marg Scheben-Edey from Ontario. She definitely has seen an increase in interest from the snowbirds in her area. She has even posted about The Star article in her blog. I have personally noticed an increase in Canadians visiting Scottsdale looking for homes. This influx of money from outside the country may be a little shot in the arm for our sagging real estate market. I have talked to others who believe that we will continue to see an increase in snowbird activity from Canada as the Winter gets colder up North. Looks like we might have a good reason to thank our little brother North of the border.

October Sales Equal to September Sales

Considering how bad of a month September was for existing home sales, it is not surprising that sales in October were able to match September.  There were about 3420 existing home sales in October which is on par with September’s sales of 3430.  Typically, October is less than September, but there has really been nothing typical about the current market.  September was affected largely by the credit issues in mid-August it was not surprising to see those sales dip.  October saw the sale of some of those homes that would have sold in September if it weren’t for the credit crunch.  As credit issues subside we should see some increases in home sales.  Unfortunately, we are entering the two slowest months of the year for homes sales, November and December.  As of today there are just over 57,300 active listings in the ARMLS.  At the current sale rate we have over 16 months of inventory.  Of the active listings 48.6% or 27,842 properties are vacant.  Needless to say, until the number of listings declines considerably the market has little chance of improving.

Sales and Pending Sales Trend over 1 year

Below is the trend of sales and properties in escrow for home resales over the last year for the entire Phoenix Metro area.  As of right now October is looking to be about even with September sales.  Properties with a status of Pending appear to be looking a little stronger.

Below is the number of homes on the market each day for the last year.

As can be seen from the chart we are WAY over where we were at this time last year.  The amazing thing is 48% of those on listed as of today are VACANT!



Home Sales Plunge by 8 Percent Nationally

Sales of existing homes plunged by a record amount in September as turmoil in mortgage markets added more problems to a housing industry in its worst slump in 16 years.

The National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday that sales of existing homes fell 8 percent in September, the largest decline to show up in records dating to 1999. The seasonally adjusted annual sales rate of 5.04 million existing homes was also the slowest pace on record.

Read the whole article:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071024/economy.html?.v=8

Best Places To Live? - Phoenix is one of them.

According to an article in Resident Publications Phoenix is one of the better places to live.

Check out the article here.

September Sales Down Nearly 21%

The sale of existing homes fell 21% compared to August sales.  This is most likely a fallout from the mortgage issues that we experience in August.  We are still at about 57,000 homes on the market with 47% of those being vacant.  In September 3,300 homes were sold which is lower than any month in the past 6 years.  So far October is showing some signs of an improvement over September.  At the September rate of sales we have 17 months worth of inventory.  Look for October to equal or surpass August sales of 4,200.  The best bet at this point is to hold off on selling your home until after the first of the year.

What the Federal Rate Cut Means for Homeowners

The Federal Reserve said it lowered short-term interest rates by half a percentage point, to 4.75%, to combat the effects of a weaker housing market and tighter credit on the broader economy.

Here is a look at what the Fed's action means for consumers:

• Homeowners. The rate cut is good news for borrowers with home-equity lines of credit, and savings could show up as soon as the next monthly statement. 
• Savers. Savers could soon see lower payouts on their savings accounts, certificates of deposit and money-market mutual funds.
• Credit Cards. Many credit-card customers should soon see some relief. About 85% of all credit cards carry variable rates.
• Auto Loans. A rate cut isn't likely to have a big impact on new-car loans in part because more than half of all auto loans are already offered at reduced rates due to heavy manufacturer incentives...
• Student Loans. Students with private, variable-rate student loans pegged to the prime rate may see their rates adjust more quickly than borrowers with loans tied to Libor.

To get a more in-depth look read the whole article here.

Pending Sales of Existing Homes Fell in July to Lowest Level Since September 2001

Pending sales of existing homes fell in July to the lowest
level in nearly six years as borrowers struggled to finalize
home purchases, particularly in expensive areas. The
National Association of Realtors said its seasonally
adjusted index of pending home sales for July fell 16.1
percent from a year ago and 12.2 percent from the prior
month.

Read the article here.

August Sales Slowest in over 5 years

There were only 4,293 homes sold in August which is lower than any other month this year.  In fact, it is the lowest number of homes sold in any month since January 2002.  This is an indication which direction the market is moving.  With September upon us we are now approaching the traditionally slower time of the year in terms of real estate sales.  Don’t expect the sales numbers to improve for 6 months.  The perceived issues with mortgages will only continue to hinder the sale of homes for the next 6 months or so.  Unfortunately, there are 5,924 homes on the market with 47% of them vacant.  These vacant homes are really hurting the market and will continue to be a drag on housing until that number decreases.  Buyers that have good credit or have extra cash will find the next 6 to 12 months to be a great time to buy.  The best time to get into any market is when that market is depressed.  I think we can safely say the housing market is in a bad way at the current time.  Buying in the right areas is more of a key than buying at the right time.  If you are planning to hold onto a property for the next 4 years or so, buying now or waiting to buy in 12 months will not make much of a difference as long as you are buying in the proper location.  Of course, make sure you use and agent you can trust.

Are incandescent bulbs a thing of the past?

More and more people are starting to focus their attention on ways to reduce the US consumption of energy and now Congress is thinking about taking some action.  There has been proposed legislation that would effectively eliminate incandescent light bulbs from store shelves nationwide as early by 2012.  If every U.S. home replaced one light bulb with a compact florescent light, the country would save more than $600 million in annual energy costs, according to the government.  Not only will this help reduce energy consumption it will also help save consumers money on their annual electric bill.

Read the whole article here.

Countrywide taps $11.5 billion credit line AND First Magnus halts loans!!!

Countrywide taps $11.5 billion credit line AND First Magnus
halts loans all in the same day. Wow, things are going to
tighten even more. This will definitely not be good for a
bunch of people.
Check out the articles by following the links below.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070816/bs_nm/countrywide_liquid
ity_dc_10
http://www.azstarnet.com/sn/relatedstories/196683.php

New Home Construction Slows to 10 year low

The construction of new homes and apartments has fallen to the lowest level since January 1997.  Anyone that has been following the real estate market new this would be coming.  Builders are in a world of hurt and are just looking to get rid of existing inventory before jumping into new construction.  The current mortgage industry in turmoil is also taking its toll on the market making it much more difficult for buyers to get approved for loans especially those with less than perfect credit.  The nations largest mortgage lender, Countrywide Financial Corp., will be cutting out most subprime, alt-A and jumbo loan products.  This is not going to help the glut of homes on the market.

You can read the whole article here.

Incentives of $100,000 or more!!!

With the housing market continuing to not look too good new
home builders are offering all kinds of incentives. From
offering to pay two years of property taxes and insurance to
paying 4 months of mortgage payments to giving $100,000
toward upgrades.

If you want a new home, now may be a great time to get one.

Read the article here.

Home Prices Expected to Recover in 2008 As Inventories Decline

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) the
real estate market should start to pick up toward the end of
this year. I also think this to be the case. The average
list price of all the homes on the market has been steadily
declining over the last couple of months and the number of
homes on the market has stayed pretty flat for about 2
months. Look for list prices to continue the decline and
the number of homes on the market to start declining over
the next couple of months. To read the NAR report visit

http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2007/hef_jul
y07_housing_prices_recover.html

End Not in Sight

It doesn't look like the end is in sight for the housing market.
May sales were worse than April.
June Sales were worse than May.
And now according to the NAR the pending home sales are the lowest they have been since 2001.
I have been saying for a while now, if you don't need to sell, don't even try.

Check out the article here.

Housing Foreclosures Jumped 90% in May From Year Ago

By Reuters

U.S. home foreclosures in May jumped 90% from a year earlier, reflecting a poor spring housing market and foreshadowing even higher levels later in 2007, real estate data firm RealtyTrac said on Tuesday.  The May foreclosures -- a sum of default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions -- totaled 176,137, up 19% from April, the firm said in its May 2007 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report.

To read the whole article go to CNBC.

New home prices plunge, sales soar

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A big drop in the price of the typical new home sold in April spurred much better-than-expected sales, according to the latest government reading on the battered real estate and home building market released Thursday. New homes sold at an annual pace of 981,000 in April, up 16.2 percent from the revised 844,000 pace in March. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast an 860,000 rate in April. The gain in sales compared to March is the biggest jump in 14 years. But even with the April spike factored in, April sales came in 10.6 percent below year-earlier levels. The median price of a new home sold in April plunged 10.9 percent from a year earlier to $229,100. The new price reading was also down 11.1 percent from the March reading.
To read the rest of the article go to CNN.com

Bernanke Plays Down Threat From Subprime Defaults

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday that the financial system can withstand the fallout from the subprime-mortgage market "without serious problems."

"We have spent a bit of time evaluating the financial implications of the subprime issues, tried to assess the magnitude of losses, and tried to determine how concentrated they are," Mr. Bernanke said in response to a question following a speech here. "There is a sense that, although there is always a possibility for some kind of disruption ..., the financial system will absorb the losses from the subprime mortgage problems without serious problems."

Read the whole article here

Lenders Seek to Modify Rather Than Foreclose Mortgages

As home foreclosures mount, mortgage companies are knocking
on doors, sending letters and making phone calls with a
simple message for struggling homeowners: They'd rather
modify your loan than foreclose. EMC Mortgage Corp.,
specialist with a $78 billion portfolio of subprime loans --
for homeowners with weak credit -- this week launched a
50-person team it calls "the Mod Squad." Members will spend
an unlimited time on the phone with troubled borrowers,
sifting through their bills to compute a workable monthly
payment. In an industry that often rewards workers for
getting off the phone quickly, the team is preparing to
speak to just three people a day. To read the entire
article go to FoxNews.com.

Pricing turnaround in Phoenix

The difference between the prices Phoenix homeowners are asking for their properties and what buyers are paying is narrowing, says an article by the Arizona Republic. The gap, which hit a record high in mid-2005, is the smallest it's been since mid-2004. This narrowing could signal a potential recovery for the local market, the Republic says, as buyers and sellers start to agree on prices. The article adds that in the metro area, the market tends to vary neighborhood by neighborhood -- some houses are selling at their asking prices in metro Phoenix, while in some fringe areas of the city, it's more of a buyer's market.

What You Can Do to Avoid Foreclosing on Your House

By Terri Cullen
From The Wall Street Journal Online

The rate of residential home foreclosure filings dropped dramatically in April, down 14.3% from the previous month, according to Foreclosures.com. Still, year-to-date the foreclosure-filings rate is higher than the same period a year earlier.

What to Do: Depending on your lender, you may be able to restructure your mortgage if you're late in making monthly payments. The delinquent mortgage payments may be added to the mortgage balance, or the homeowner could be given additional time to make catch-up payments. If you can no longer afford your adjustable-loan rate, don't count on bankruptcy court to save your home: Changes in the bankruptcy law in 2005 have made it harder for homeowners to qualify for a "fresh start" and prevent foreclosure. Instead, work with a qualified credit-counseling service to restructure your non-mortgage debt to free up cash-flow. Federal help may also soon be on the way: Mortgage-finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are planning to introduce alternative financing to help homeowners with subprime loans avoid foreclosure.

Taking a Dip
Nationwide the number of foreclosures dropped in April.

Supply of Homes Continues To Grow, Reflecting Weak Sales

The number of homes listed for sale in 18 major metropolitan
areas at the end of April was up 7% from March, according to
data compiled by ZipRealty Inc., a national real-estate
brokerage firm in Emeryville, Calif. The data cover listings
of single-family homes, condos and town houses on local
multiple-listing services.
The increase was above the seasonal norm. Over the past 22
years, home inventories nationwide have increased an average
of 4.5% in April from March, according to Credit Suisse
Group. Spring is the busiest time of year for home shopping,
as families with children try to get settled ahead of the
next school year.
Go to RealEstateJournal.com to read the entire article.

Home Sales, Prices Will Continue To Slide, NAR Predicts

In its latest forecast for the real-estate market, the National Association of Realtors projected that existing home sales will fall 2.9% this year to 6.29 million, compared with its previous forecast of a 2.2% decline. The drop-off for new home sales is expected to be more severe. The NAR said new home sales are likely to fall 18% to 864,000, compared with the prior forecast of a 14% drop.

Read the whole article are RealEstateJournal.com

London homes world's most expensive: survey

London beat the glamour of Monaco, New York, Hong Kong and Tokyo to become the world's most expensive place to buy residential property, a survey showed on Tuesday. Residential property in the British capital costs on average 2,300 pounds per square foot, or 36,800 euros (49,889 dollars) per square meter, according to the 'Wealth Report 2007.' That beat nearest competitor Monaco, where property costs an average of 2,190 pounds per meter or 35,000 euros per square meter.

To read more go here.

April Numbers Fall

Although the official numbers will not be out for another 2 weeks it is safe to say April sales were slower than March sales.  I believe this is a sign of things to come.  I do not anticipate May sales improving much over April if at all.  Unfortunately some sellers are still overpricing their homes.  This is just causing an increase in supply and as a result buyers are either sitting around waiting for the prices to drop or picking and choosing the best looking homes out there.  There are buyers out there, you just need to make your home more attractive to those buyers.

Fix-It Projects to Speed The Sale of Your House

For some sellers, a little extra work can mean not only a difference in how smoothly the sale goes or how much they can ask for their home but also if they get to the closing table at all in an uncertain market.

"Talk to Realtors and they will tell you anything you do cosmetically to increase curb appeal is going to help the resale value," said Sal Alfano, editor of Remodeling magazine.

For some good advice on getting your home ready for selling read this article at the RealEstateJournal.com

Four Renovations That Won't Get You a Higher Selling Price

Four Renovations That Won't Get You a Higher Selling Price
From MarketWatch
These are tough times for home sellers. If you're one of
them, it can be tempting to launch into a series of home
renovations to make your home more desirable.
But be discerning about your choices -- certain renovations
can actually decrease the value of your home. Money magazine
suggests avoiding these four renovations at all costs:
1) Swimming Pool
2) Home Addition
3) Trendy Finishes
4) Jacuzzi
To find out more visit www.realestatejournal.com

March Sales

So far 2007 is shaping up to be much like 2002.

The number of sales for January, February and March look very
much like the numbers from 2001 and 2002. 

2007 sales are about 10% below the 2003 sales figures.
In order for sales to reach 2003 figures there will need to be 7400 homes sales.

With the average price of homes on the market at $469k, I do not see
the situation improving for at least another couple of months.

Lennar profit drops 74 percent!

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Lennar Corp., the No. 3 U.S. home
builder, posted a 74 percent plunge in profit on Tuesday and
withdrew its earnings forecast, saying the industry's spring
selling season has failed to bloom and its outlook for the
rest of 2007 does not look bright.

To read the whole article go here.

Be Aware of Lock Bumping!

Lock bumping is a technique that thieves use to gain access to your home even when the
door is locked. It is amazingly simple and takes only seconds for a criminal to break into your house. There are a bunch of videos posted at YouTube and on other websites thatteach people how to lock bump.

To find out about lock bumping watch the following video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hr23tpWX8lM&eurl

December Stats are out

For only the second time in the last five years the average homes sold in December increased.

Is this a sign of things to come? Hopefully. The number of homes sold for December are 5,411. This is an increase of 1.37% over November sales and 12.8% below the average number of sales for December. However, with December traditionally being the slowest time of the year to sell a home, the increase in sales over November shows some encouraging signs for things to come. The average sales price dropped by 1.61% in December which is not a very encouraging sign. So we are still in a state of flux when it comes to real estate in the Phoenix area. The current number of homes on the market had been dropping all the way until December 31^st. Starting on January 1^st the number of listings started to increase for the first time since October. As of this morning we are currently at 43,632 active listings on the market, 52.9% of those homes have been on the market for over 3 months. As the prime selling season approaches it will be interesting to see what the trends show. January usually has considerably fewer sales than December, will that be the case this year? I do not believe that will be the case this year. If anything January sales will be very close to the December numbers.

We shall see soon enough.

Arizona is fastest growing state

Arizona has officially become the fastest growing state in the union.
There is on average 584 people moving to Arizona every DAY!!!
That is over 4000 per week and over 17500 per month.
This fact alone should prove to be a boon for Arizona and Phoenix.
Those moving to the state need a place to work and a place to live.
By the end of 2007 the real estate market should be buzzing along again.

It looks like it is definitely going to be a Happy New Year!

To read the CNN article follow the link below
http://tinyurl.com/ye2yzg